Does the price of crude oil have a significant impact on PP spunbond nonwoven fabric?

The price of crude oil has a significant impact on PP spunbond nonwoven fabric, which is the core underlying factor determining its production cost and market pricing. The transmission chain is direct and rigid.

1、 Direct strong binding on the cost side

1. The domestic oil to PP production capacity accounts for about 57% of the total production capacity, and the PDH production capacity accounts for 20%. The costs of both mainstream processes are deeply tied to international oil prices, and the raw material cost of PP spunbond nonwoven fabric accounts for more than 70% of the total cost.
2. For every $10/barrel increase in crude oil, the theoretical cost of PP fiber material will rise by about 400 yuan/ton, directly driving up the production cost of PP spunbond non-woven fabric.
3. During the escalation of the Middle East conflict in March 2026, the cumulative fluctuation of oil prices exceeded $30/barrel, corresponding to a fluctuation range of PP costs exceeding 2684 yuan/ton, directly driving the daily adjustment of non-woven fabric spot prices.

2、 Market transmission is completely synchronized

1. In September 2026, international oil prices exceeded the $100/barrel mark, directly driving up the prices of PP fiber materials and causing a significant increase in the market prices of PP spunbond nonwoven fabrics.
2. Even if oil prices fall in the short term, the lag effect on the raw material side will still keep PP costs fluctuating at a high level, and non-woven fabric prices will not immediately fall synchronously with oil prices, resulting in an overall upward shift in the cost curve.

3、 Current special impact

1. In September 2026, EIA has raised its forecast for the average Brent crude oil price for the year to $91.01 per barrel. Coupled with the continued supply interruption risk caused by the Middle East geopolitical conflict, the pattern of high oil prices will continue to run through the fourth quarter, and the cost support of PP spunbond nonwoven fabric will continue to strengthen. The price center will be significantly higher than the first half of the year.
2. The only buffering factor is the current overcapacity in the industry, and the terminal has a strong resistance to price increases, which will partially suppress the price increase caused by the rise in oil prices and prevent a unilateral surge in prices.

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