Predict the impact of the Iran Israel war on the foreign trade of PP spunbond nonwoven fabrics from September to December 2026

Based on the background of the PP spunbond non-woven fabric foreign trade market from July to September 2026, the impact of the Iran Iraq conflict, and the trend of the peak season in the fourth quarter, the impact of the Iran Iraq conflict on the PP spunbond non-woven fabric foreign trade market from September to December 2026 will show the characteristics of "strengthened cost support, increased logistics risks, structural differentiation of demand, and coexistence of opportunities and risks". Combined with the timing nodes of the peak season of foreign trade in the fourth quarter (Golden September and Silver October delivery time+Christmas order delivery time), the specific prediction is as follows:

1、 Dimension based core impact

1. Raw material side: The cost center has shifted upwards, and the bottom line of foreign trade quotations has been strengthened

• The stalemate stage from September to October: If the conflict maintains the current local friction situation, international oil prices will stabilize in the range of 90-100 US dollars per barrel, driving up domestic PP fiber prices by 300-600 yuan/ton compared to August, directly pushing up the production cost of PP spunbond non-woven fabric. The FOB foreign trade quotation will be raised by 2% -5% synchronously, and the cost support of enterprise quotations will be significantly stronger than in the first half of the year.
• Scenario differentiation from November to December: If the conflict gradually eases and oil prices fall back to $80-85 per barrel, cost support will be marginally weakened; If the conflict escalates and affects shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices may exceed $120 per barrel, global PP raw material supply may be tight in the short term, foreign trade quotations may experience a jump of more than 10%, and the risk of long-term contract fulfillment may significantly increase.
• Additional benefits: The local petrochemical production capacity in the Middle East has been affected by conflicts, leading to a decline in operating rates. Global PP raw material trade flows are tilting towards China and Southeast Asia, and domestic non-woven fabric enterprises have better stability in raw material supply than local manufacturers in the Middle East and Europe, further highlighting their cost advantage in global foreign trade competition.

2. Logistics end: Peak season combined with risk premium, delivery cost and cycle double increase

• Peak shipment period from September to October: The war risk surcharge for the Red Sea and Persian Gulf routes has increased by 15% -25% compared to the regular period. Coupled with the tight cabin space during the peak season, the single container logistics cost for Middle East and European routes has increased by 10% -20% compared to August. Shipping schedules are generally delayed by 7-12 days, and the clearance efficiency of some Middle East ports has decreased by more than 30%.
• Christmas delivery period from November to December: If the conflict does not escalate, logistics costs will remain high but will not further increase; If the conflict escalates, some shipping companies may temporarily jump to ports in the Middle East and eastern Mediterranean, significantly increasing the risk of Christmas order delivery defaults. If some North African and Southern European orders transshipped through the Red Sea are forced to detour around the Cape of Good Hope, logistics costs will increase by more than 30%, and delivery cycles will be extended by about 20 days.

3. Demand side: There is a clear structural differentiation, with a large volume of emergency and high-end demand

1.Identify incremental opportunities

• Local demand in the Middle East: With the ongoing conflict, the demand for medical protection (masks, protective clothing fabrics), temporary resettlement of refugees (waterproof tarpaulins, geotextile covers), and non-woven fabrics for people's livelihoods will skyrocket by more than 30%. Local production capacity is insufficient, and a large number of orders will turn to China for procurement. The antibacterial and thickened protective functional orders in the main production areas of Fujian and Shandong that you are concerned about will see the most significant growth.
• European order transfer: Conflict drives up natural gas prices in Europe, resulting in an 8% -12% increase in local non-woven fabric production costs compared to the second quarter. The export share of cost-effective Chinese made functional PP spunbond non-woven fabrics (antibacterial, UV resistant, flame retardant) to Europe is expected to increase by 10% -15%, especially for high-end products such as sanitary and home furnishings.
• Increment of entrepot trade: traders from neighboring transit countries such as the United Arab Emirates and Türkiye will increase their purchases of Chinese non-woven fabrics, and entrepot them to conflict areas and Eastern European markets affected by energy costs. In the fourth quarter, the proportion of small and medium-sized batch urgent orders and bulk orders will increase significantly.

2.Negative suppressive factors

• Under global inflationary pressure, the demand for ordinary civilian shopping bags and low-end packaging products in Europe and America will be suppressed, and customers have a strong desire to lower prices. The profit margin of foreign trade for these products will be further compressed, and some ultra-low end orders may be transferred to lower cost regions in Southeast Asia.

4. Trade risk side: increased uncertainty, shift in order structure towards short orders

• Foreign exchange risk: Customers in conflict areas may have longer payment cycles, and some orders from Iran and Israel may face difficulties in receiving payments and risks of letter of credit redemption; The global risk aversion sentiment is driving the US dollar index to remain high. If the RMB exchange rate maintains its current range, there will be some benefits for export companies in conventional regions to settle their foreign exchange.
• Changes in order structure: Overseas customers will reduce the proportion of long orders by about 20% in the fourth quarter to avoid price and logistics fluctuations, while the proportion of short and emergency orders will significantly increase. They have higher requirements for the company's rapid production and delivery capabilities.

2、 Suggestions for practical response to foreign trade

• Quotation strategy: Long orders delivered in November and December must be equipped with raw material price linkage clauses to lock in basic profits and avoid losses caused by unexpected cost increases; Emergency short orders can have their prices appropriately increased to cover the risk premium.
• Logistics arrangement: Priority should be given to top shipping companies for routes to the Middle East and Europe, and war insurance should be fully purchased; Arrange shipment 1-2 weeks in advance for Christmas orders, reserve buffer time to avoid delivery delays.
• Customer and product layout: Conduct credit screening for customers in conflict areas, prioritize the use of pre T/T payment methods to reduce foreign exchange risks; Focus on connecting with medical and engineering emergency customers, increase the stocking and promotion of antibacterial and thick protective functional products, and seize structural incremental opportunities.

Contact us for samples or a quote：-We look forward to working with you.

marketing@henghuanonwoven.com